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World news and comment from the Guardian | guardian.co.uk


Severe weather threatens Christmas getaway - live updates

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 01:41 AM PST

Follow live updates as severe weather threatens travel chaos on one of the busiest days of the Christmas getaway









Growth hopes push stock markets higher despite China cash squeeze - business live

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 01:38 AM PST

Stocks rally in Asia and Europe after the IMF pledges to raise its outlook for the US economy









Why does a united Northern Ireland still seem a pipe dream? | Simon Jenkins

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 01:32 AM PST

The inability to agree on flags and parades – fear-mongering emblems of a militarist past – highlights the impossibility of the US negotiator's task

Last night the American negotiator Richard Haass seemed close to throwing up his hands in despair over yet another bid to bring peace to the parties in Northern Ireland. He has been struggling since July to clear up lingering aspects of the ever hesitant peace process. These include flags, parades and how to treat the legacies and suspicions of past conflicts. The parties meet again this morning to seek a deal but hopes are not high.

For most Britons the words Northern Ireland induce a sinking heart. They would like to see it sail off into the sunset with its grim ancestral feuds. It beggars belief that the United Kingdom, which delights in telling the world how to behave, still contains a province as divided as Northern Ireland. Its religious tribes remain separated socially, geographically and culturally. It has separate schools and even walls to keep each other apart, a humiliation shared in Europe only with Cypriots.

There are signs of a willingness to lay some of the past to rest, as in offering immunity from prosecution. This would be delicate as it involves a suspension of normal justice. More bizarre is the inability to agree on flags and parades, emblems of a militarist past blatantly intended to induce fear in an enemy. Why should anyone need such antics in 21st century Europe? Any sensible person would simply ban them, totally and without partiality. Yet parades and flags are so embedded in the psychology of this divided society that no one can conceive of living without them.

It is easy to blame the Irish people for their inability to set the past behind them and forge a united province. Yet similar divisions in Liverpool and Glasgow have been overcome with determined leadership, including from the churches. The reality in Northern Ireland is that this leadership was lacking. As a result, for almost half a century the province was ruled from London – with British and even American negotiators summoned to help. This has been one of the starkest failures in the long history of "English intervention". It would surely be better if the Irish were left to sort it all out themselves.


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John Fordham's top five jazz albums of 2013

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 01:30 AM PST

From Polish trumpeters to English folk singers, there were some great recordings in 2013 – here's our pick

See all our Best Albums of 2013 coverage here

Tomasz Stanko New York Quartet: Wisława(ECM)

The great Polish trumpeter Tomasz Stanko, after decades spent imparting a classically influenced eastern European pensiveness to the sound of Miles Davis, has rediscovered his own kind of New York vibe – with a cutting-edge young American rhythm section, and unique Cuban pianist David Virelles. There's plenty of Stanko's familiar brooding tenderness, but episodes of fiery, time-stretching postbop worthy of the 1960s Miles quintet too.

Wayne Shorter: Without a Net (Blue Note)

Wayne Shorter's recent London jazz festival gig met some flak for its jazz/classical mix, but this live album balances eight terrific quartet tracks and a 23min semi-orchestral section. Dramatically paced, full of exhilarating avant-swing and fearless openness to the unexpected, it's up there with Shorter's best in his 80th remarkable year.

Colin Towns' Blue Touch Paper: Drawing Breath (Provocateur)

Colin Towns was taking a chance in forming this international sextet including Polar Bear's Mark Lockheart and Troyka's Chris Montague, having founded a reputation on big-ensemble jazz, and high-profile composing for TV and movies. But Towns's bold collages (of elements including uncompromising jazz, Frank Zappa, Stravinsky, and the Beatles) worked triumphantly here, joining Latin dances, rock, late-Miles funk and rich jazz-orchestral effects.

Quercus: Quercus (ECM)

One of ECM's bestselling albums in the UK in 2013, Quercus joins the revered English folk singer June Tabor with jazz musicians Iain Ballamy (saxes) and Huw Warren (keys), on a jazz-folk repertoire including AE Housman's The Lads In Their Hundreds, and Shakespeare's Come Away Death. It's a live set that balances jazz surprises and an illuminating simplicity – with Tabor sublime, and Ballamy making a Charles Lloyd-like foil for her.

Pat Metheny/Tap: John Zorn's Book of Angels Vol 20 (Nonesuch/Tzadik)

John Zorn's huge songbooks of radically adapted Jewish folk music fizz with fascinating melody – and they're imaginatively interpreted here by guitarist (and longtime Zorn admirer) Pat Metheny, who swaps his familiarly soft-funky lyricism for the edgier inclinations he has sparingly revealed over the years. Metheny overdubs on several instruments, and the vivaciously passionate tunes and dynamic improvisation strike sparks off each other.


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Vince Cable should resign over immigration remarks, says Tory MP

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 01:23 AM PST

Nigel Mills criticises business secretary for saying Conservative rhetoric recalled Enoch Powell's 'rivers of blood' speech

A Tory MP leading the opposition to lifting controls on Romania and Bulgaria has called for Vince Cable to step down from the cabinet after the business secretary warned that Conservative rhetoric on immigration was reminiscent to Enoch Powell's "rivers of blood" speech.

Nigel Mills said: "It would be very hard for him to sit around the cabinet table having effectively compared his Conservative colleagues to Enoch Powell, which is an utterly ridiculous thing to have done. Mr Cable's always had a rather creative interpretation of what collective responsibility ought to look like but these comments, coming on the back of some would say completely sensible policy announcements by the prime minister to restrict welfare for people newly arrived here [who] can't claim until they've paid in – it just looks completely out of touch with the sentiments of most of the British people.

"What he said yesterday was ridiculously over the top and ill-judged remarks. We've tried to conduct this debate in a sensible manner especially at a time when the economy's still pretty weak

and for him to use such intemperate language really is unacceptable."

The extent of the bitter personal poison seeping into some of the coalition's key policy disputes was revealed on Sunday when Cable accused the Conservatives of grubbing for Ukip votes with irresponsible and populist rhetoric.

He said the Tories were creating a panic in Britain about the scale of migration from the European Union, saying it was the duty of political leaders to provide reassurance during times of national anxiety.

He also revealed he was concerned for the country's social fabric because of the scale of public spending cuts and for the first time warned there may have to be an increase in interest rates to ease a "raging housing boom" in the south-east.

He said if no action were taken, there was a risk that in parts of London housing would be too expensive for anyone but "foreigners and bankers".

Before the lifting of transitional controls on Romanians and Bulgarians, Cable's remarks will infuriate Tory backbenchers who claim they are merely voicing the fears of their constituents over the likely scale of migration from the countries on 1 January.

Cable also repeated Nick Clegg's dismissive rejection of Tory plans to place a cap on the number of EU migrants allowed into Britain, saying it was "illegal and had no chance of being implemented".

But it was Cable's branding of Cameron as irresponsible in his pandering for Ukip votes and likening the rhetoric to Enoch Powell's "rivers of blood" speech in 1968 that will cause most friction as the coalition seeks to remain a functioning government before the 2015 general election. Powell was sacked as shadow defence secretary after the speech, which was widely regarded as racist.

Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Cable said: "I think there's a bigger picture here. We periodically get these immigration panics, I remember going back to Enoch Powell and 'rivers of blood' and all that, and if you go back a century there were panics over Jewish immigrants.

"The responsibility of politicians in this situation when people are getting anxious is to try to reassure them and give them facts and not panic and resort to populist measures that do harm."

He added: "What's happening here is the Conservatives are in a bit of panic because of Ukip, reacting the way they are. It's not going to help them politically but it's doing a great deal of damage.

"The simple point is there is very little evidence of benefit tourism from people coming from eastern Europe. All the evidence suggests they put far more into the economy in terms of tax than they take out in benefits. It was right to stop abuse of the benefits system … but freedom of movement, albeit constrained as it is under the European agreements, is an absolutely basic principle and a lot of British people take advantage of it."

He also laid into "ridiculous rules" developed by the Home Office that prevented Indian and Chinese business people from visiting Britain.

He added that he feared for the UK's social fabric, saying "pressure on public spending is getting very severe – actually, some very good services are now being seriously affected".

Downing Street was unapologetic about its immigration policy, saying: "Vince is a member of the government and supports government policy. The words he chooses to do that are up to him."

But Cable again expressed doubts about macroeconomic policy, saying the imbalance of the recovery was helping to fuel "a raging housing boom in London and the south-east". He pointed out that last week Moritz Kraemer, head analyst at rating agency Standard and Poor's, had said that the surge in the UK housing market meant questions about sustainability remained.

Cable has repeatedly called for the help to buy scheme introduced by the chancellor to be discontinued, but Conservative housing minister Kris Hopkins rejected Cable's analysis, saying 3.4m property transactions were expected during the existence of help to buy and less than 2% of those would be through the scheme.

"This is not fuelling a housing boom. This is facilitating some 18,000 people get their foot on the housing ladder," he said.

Meanwhile the Bulgarian president has warned David Cameron he risks being judged by history as a prime minister who has isolated the UK and damaged its reputation. Rosen Plevneliev said Bulgarians were watching Britain's immigration debate unfold and raising questions about the "democratic, tolerant and humane British society".


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Morrison advised to move intellectually disabled asylum seeker into community

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 01:01 AM PST

Immigration minister announces asylum seeker will be reunited with her family in community detention









How mainstream education stifles 'something sacred' | Clare Carlisle

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 12:59 AM PST

Clare Carlisle: Bertrand Russell – part 6: The philosopher's anti-authoritarianism was seen in the ethos of the school he established, at which lessons were optional

Ever since Plato set out a school curriculum in The Republic, philosophers have come up with more or less idiosyncratic plans for educational reform. Bertrand Russell continued this tradition – not only in his writings, but in sending his own children to a school he founded with his wife. Like much of his popular philosophy, Russell's reflections on education are flawed but interesting, and often remain pertinent in our own time.

Last week, we considered Russell's commitment to individual freedom and his critique of oppressive social structures – views which led him to argue that "the cramping of love by institutions is one of the major evils of the world". This idealistic position meets with practical challenges in the case of education, for this is a collective enterprise that requires organisation and administrative order – and yet its aims, Russell always insisted, should focus on the individuality of children.

One of Russell's earliest essays on education is in his 1916 book, Principles of Social Reconstruction. Here, the philosopher argues that teachers should have an attitude of "reverence" for something deep within each child: "something sacred, indefinable, unlimited, something individual and strangely precious, the growing principle of life, an embodied fragment of the dumb striving of the world". Teachers who possess this attitude do not try to mould their pupils in a particular way, but rather have "a longing to help the child in its own battle". Of course, neither "reverence" nor its accompanying "longing" can be easily quantified and standardised in the institutional contexts that large-scale education requires. Russell saw clearly how classroom conditions prevented the kind of pedagogical culture he envisaged: "In education, with its codes of rules emanating from a government office, its large classes and fixed curriculum and overworked teachers, its determination to produce a dead level of glib mediocrity, the lack of reverence for the child is all but universal."

At the heart of Russell's more positive theory of education – set out in On Education (1926) – are four virtues which, he believed, teachers should foster in their students. These are vitality, courage, sensitivity (which in this context means appropriate emotional responsiveness) and intelligence. For Russell, successful education develops the whole character of a child in its physical, emotional, spiritual and intellectual aspects.

When he wrote On Education, Russell was planning to put these ideals into practice. By this time, he had two children with his second wife, Dora, who was a young feminist intellectual. Interest in alternatives to mainstream education flourished in Britain during these years between the wars, and in 1927 the Russells set up the small, progressive Beacon Hill school in Sussex. Lessons were optional, and children were encouraged to choose their own activities.

The experimental ethos of Beacon Hill was controversial in its day. But many of Russell's recommendations in his essays on education seem sensible enough. He writes of the energy needed to teach, pointing out that clergymen are not expected to preach for several hours each day and wondering why this is demanded of schoolteachers.

"Those who have no experience of teaching are incapable of imagining the expense of spirit entailed by any really living instruction," he writes, adding that "intense fatigue and irritable nerves" are the inevitable result of long days in the classroom. Russell argues that large class sizes and overworked teachers are a "false economy", and that "a teacher ought to have only as much teaching as can be done, on most days, with actual pleasure in the work, and with an awareness of the pupil's mental needs."

The outcome of the mainstream education system, suggests Russell, stifles the "something sacred" within every human being. When teachers are overworked, they have to save energy by performing their daily tasks "mechanically", and in order to do this they impose a strict order and demand pupils' obedience to it. For Russell, "obedience is the counterpart of authority" – and as we have seen in recent weeks, he opposed authoritarianism in all contexts since this undermines the individual's freedom. In a 1940 essay on teaching he writes that "the teacher, like the artist, the philosopher, and the man of letters, can only perform his work adequately if he feels himself to be an individual directed by an inner creative impulse, not dominated and fettered by an outside authority."

Of course, education requires organisation, but Russell is suggesting that policymakers should focus on creating conditions that can support the flourishing individuality of both teachers and pupils. "If the world is not to lose the benefit to be derived from its best minds," he writes, "it will have to find some method of allowing them scope and liberty in spite of organisation."

Ironically – but perhaps not surprisingly – Russell's commitment to the flourishing of his own individuality did not help the fortunes of Beacon Hill school. His marriage to Dora was an open relationship, and the ideal of free love eventually led the couple to an acrimonious divorce. When their marriage disintegrated in the early 1930s, Russell withdrew as headmaster and sent his children to a more financially stable progressive school, while Dora continued to run Beacon Hill until its closure in 1943.

Looking back on their educational experiment in his autobiography, Russell reflects that their approach was somewhat misguided and concludes that "children cannot be happy without a certain amount of order and routine".


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M&S apologises after Muslim assistant refused to sell customer alcohol

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 12:34 AM PST

Checkout worker asked customer buying bottle of champagne to wait for another till to become available

Marks & Spencer has apologised after a Muslim member of staff refused to sell a customer alcohol.

The retailer said that where employees have religious beliefs that restrict what foods or drinks they can handle, it tries to place them in a "suitable role".

An M&S spokeswoman said: "We regret that in the case highlighted we were not following our own internal policy."

The issue arose after an unnamed customer at a London store told the Telegraph they were "taken aback" when an "extremely apologetic" Muslim checkout worker asked for them to wait for another till to become available.

The customer told the newspaper: "I had one bottle of champagne, and the lady, who was wearing a headscarf, was very apologetic but said she could not serve me. She told me to wait until another member of staff was available.

"I was taken aback. I was a bit surprised. I've never come across that before."

Drinking alcohol is forbidden in Islam, and some Muslims refuse to handle it.

M&S said its policy applied to staff of all religions, not just Islam.

The spokeswoman said: "Where we have an employee whose religious beliefs restrict food or drink they can handle, we work closely with our members of staff to place them in suitable role, such as in our clothing department or bakery in foods.

"As a secular business we have an inclusive policy that welcomes all religious beliefs whether across our customer or employee base. This policy has been in place for many years, and when followed correctly, we do not believe that it should compromise our ability to offer the highest level of customer service.

We apologise that this policy was not followed in the case reported."

The case highlighted differences among retailers on whether religious staff should have to carry out certain jobs, the Telegraph said.

Sainsbury's guidelines say there is no reason why staff who don't drink alcohol or eat pork on religious grounds could not handle them, the newspaper said, while Tesco said it made "no sense" for staff who refuse to touch items for religious reasons to work on a till.

Muslims working at Asda would not work have to work on tills if they objected to handling alcohol and Morrisons would "respect and work around anyone's wishes not to handle specific products for religious or cultural reasons", the Telegraph said.


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Dennis Rodman departs North Korea with questions unanswered

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 12:09 AM PST

Rodman ends latest visit to secretive communist state without revealing whether he had met leader Kim Jong-un

Former basketball star Dennis Rodman left North Korea on Monday, but didn't answer questions from the media on whether he had met leader Kim Jong-un on his latest visit.

The pair struck up a friendship when Rodman first travelled to the secretive communist state earlier this year.

Rodman declined to answer questions from reporters on his arrival at Beijing's airport.

On Sunday night, he told the Associated Press he had not yet had a meeting with Kim. He arrived in North Korea on Thursday, a week after North Korea announced the execution of Kim's once-powerful uncle, Jang Song-thaek, sparking speculation by foreign analysts over the future of the Kim regime.

Rodman's short visit was aimed at finalising plans to bring 12 eformer NBA players to Pyongyang for an exhibition game on 8 January to mark Kim's birthday.

Rodman is the highest profile American to meet Kim since the leader inherited power from his father in late 2011.


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Pussy Riot member Maria Alyokhina released from Russian jail

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 12:05 AM PST

Alyokhina released early under amnesty from two-year sentence for protest against Vladimir Putin









Whips, cloaks and parchment: the festive presents of ancient Rome

Posted: 23 Dec 2013 12:00 AM PST

Matthew Nicholls, who is working on a huge digital recreation of ancient Rome, reveals the gifts given on Saturnalia

This was the day when the ancient Romans woke with joyful anticipation, or a lurch of dread: December 23, Sigillaria, the gift-giving day of the festival of Saturnalia.

What would the day bring to the naughty and nice? A handful of walnuts and a nice jar of fermented fish sauce? A hideous but warm sweater? Or – the inspired suggestion of the witty poet Marcus Valerius Martial – a useful whip for a spot of post-Saturnia self flagellation?

Many must have yearned for the first century Kindle instead of a scroll of papyrus – a codex, a book made of sewn-in parchment pages, almost indestructible and with so much data storage space. A single book, Martial noted in wonder, could hold the whole of Livy's monumental history of Rome. "The voluminous Livy, of whom my bookcase would once scarcely have contained the whole, is now comprised in this small parchment volume."

Martial helpfully pointed out where you could buy these marvels: "So that you are not ignorant of where I am on sale, and don't wander aimlessly through the whole city, I will be your guide and you will be certain: look for Secundus, the freedman of learned Lucensis, behind the threshold of the Temple of Peace and the Forum of Pallas."

That shop is gone, but modern readers will at least be able to find its site, in a gigantic digital recreation of ancient Rome, due to be published in full next year, which Matthew Nicholls, senior lecturer in classics at Reading university, has been working on for years - while poring over Roman Christmas present lists.

"The whip points out how in some ways they were very like us – there are gifts which people are bound to get this year, like pencil cases, slippers and perfume - and in some ways very different, so you have to beware of attempting to draw direct parallels.

"There were jolly types who felt it was all an excuse for a laugh and joined in with enthusiasm, and then you get the superior Scrooge types, like Seneca and Pliny, who clearly feel they're above all that."

Seneca, stoic philosopher and dramatist – whose gloomy disposition was entirely justified by his end, when he was forced into suicide – wrote: "It is now the month of December, when the greatest part of the city is in a bustle. Loose reins are given to public dissipation; everywhere you may hear the sound of great preparations."

In contrast the jolly Martial wrote a whole book of little couplets, designed to be given with gifts, arranged as poor gifts and rich gifts - rich gifts, he pointed out, might do no favours, compelling the recipient to respond in kind.

Martial's equivalent of an atrocious reindeer Christmas sweater was an ugly but warm cloak: "the stout workmanship of a Gallic weaver, which, though of a barbarous country, has a Lacedaemonian name; a thing uncouth, but not to be despised in cold December ...Clad in this gift; you will laugh at winds and showers."

By late on Wednesday afternoon, many with aching heads may sympathise with Pliny the Elder - who later died in the eruption of Vesuvius which would destroy Pompeii – and envy him the escape route at his country villa, into a sunny private room.

"When I betake myself into this sitting-room, I seem to be quite away even from my villa, and I find it delightful to sit there, especially during the Saturnalia, when all the rest of the house rings with the merry riot and shouts of the festival-makers; for then I do not interfere with their amusements." If Nicholls had to choose from Martial's suggestions, "an inlaid citron wood table, and a silver statue of Minerva, goddess of learning, would look good in my study". And, he adds, reminded by an insistent voice at his knee, a rattle for 14-month-old Sophia.


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Tech 128: From Airbnb to crowdfunding, the year in review

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 11:01 PM PST

Part one of our review of everything you'll need to remember about 2013, including the rise of bitcoin and demise of Blackberry. By Alex Hern, Siraj Datoo and Kirsty Beckingham









Frozen in time: Douglas Mawson's Antarctic base – in pictures

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 11:00 PM PST

A hundred years ago Douglas Mawson and his fellow explorers built a complex of wooden huts at Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctica, as a base for their scientific work









Science Weekly podcast: science 2013 – from Google burger to Higgs Nobel

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 11:00 PM PST

This week on Science Weekly, withKevin Fong standing in for Alok Jha while he's in Antarctica, we take a look at the big science stories of 2013.

Kevin is draws upon the hive brain of the Observer and Guardian science team, namely Observer science editor Robin McKie, Observer Tech Monthly commissioning editor Nicola Davis and Guardian science correspondent Ian Sample.

Including major advances in decoding ancient DNA, a joint Nobel Prize in Physics for the theory that led to the discovery of the Higgs boson, the first beefburger grown in the lab (funded by Google co-founder Sergey Brin), the return of a king, a 3D-printed gun, the Chelyabinsk meteorite, and Voyager 1 leaving the solar system, it has been a momentous year for science.

Subscribe for free via iTunes to ensure every episode gets delivered. (Here is the non-iTunes URL feed).

Follow the podcast on our Science Weekly Twitter feed and receive updates on all breaking science news stories from Guardian Science.

Email scienceweeklypodcast@gmail.com.

Guardian Science is now on Facebook. You can also join our Science Weekly Facebook group.

We're always here when you need us. Listen back through our archive.









The Philippines is devastated as much by unfair debt as typhoon Haiyan | Tim Jones

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 11:00 PM PST

By Christmas Eve, a country struggling with foreign loans and climate change will have spent $1bn on debts in seven weeks

By Christmas Eve, the Philippines will have spent $1bn (£0.6bn) paying foreign debts in the seven weeks since typhoon Haiyan devastated much of the country. It will have spent a total of $8.4bn on foreign debt in 2013, and faces a further $8.8bn in 2014. While a little more than $100m has been pledged by international donors for relief work, more than 800 times that amount of money leaves the country every year to pay debts.

The people of the Philippines have been saddled with a large debt since the 1980s, when Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator who held the presidency from 1965 to 1986, was loaned large amounts by western governments and institutions such as the World Bank in order to keep him onside during the cold war. During his rule, Marcos is thought to have stolen up to $10bn of Filipino money. But after he was deposed in 1986, the lenders who were complicit in this corruption continued to demand repayment.

The impact of chronic debt has been devastating for the Filipino people, with public services such as health and education persistently underfunded. Today, about 16 million Filipinos are estimated to be living in extreme poverty and malnourished. Meanwhile, more than 20% of government revenue is spent on foreign debt payments each year, almost as much as on health and education combined.

In response to typhoon Haiyan, the World Bank and Asian Development Bank rapidly announced they would lend $1.9bn for emergency assistance and reconstruction. That this much-needed money will be given as loans rather than grants means the impact of the disaster will continue through another generation because of the high debt payments.

By definition, loans for reconstruction cannot generate returns to enable the debt to be paid. The most they can do is return infrastructure to the state it was in before a disaster hit. As Joseph Stead from Christian Aid says: "Debts that should have been cancelled years ago are limiting the capacity of the Philippines to respond and rebuild [after] the typhoon. Action on this is clearly needed before any new debts are added."

But the impact of high debt payments is not the only reason Filipino debt should be cancelled. Following the end of Marcos's dictatorship, many of those who had resisted his rule formed the Freedom from Debt Coalition, calling for the non-payment of his odious debts. Loans to Marcos to build the Batan nuclear power plant – which never generated any electricity, and was built on an earthquake faultline – merely represent the most absurd example.

These unjust loans continued after the fall of Marcos. In 1997, the Bank of Austria lent money for medical waste incinerators, which were already being decommissioned in Europe because of their high level of pollution and would be banned in the Philippines within two years. In 2008, the Freedom from Debt Coalition got the Philippines Congress to agree to suspend payments on these and 10 other loans, but this decision was vetoed by Gloria Arroyo, the president at the time.

The UK government also played a role in the accumulation of useless debt. In the 2000s, UK Export Finance, part of the Department for Business, guaranteed loans for the purchase of bridges from British company Mabey and Johnson. Local campaigners said many of the bridges went nowhere, leading into the middle of fields or connecting up mud tracks. Mabey and Johnson were later convicted of paying bribes to win projects in six developing countries: Jamaica, Ghana, Angola, Madagascar, Mozambique and Bangladesh.

The Philippines was excluded from international debt relief schemes because, with an annual income of £1,600 a person, it was adjudged "too rich" by governments. Consequently, the country remains trapped in a debt cycle where payments limit government investments, preventing repayment of the debt. Over the past 40 years, the Philippines government has been loaned $115bn and has repaid $132bn in principal sums and interest. However, it is still said to owe $60bn.

This cycle is now being exacerbated by climate change, as the strength of typhoons and the damage they cause increases. Richer governments have consistently refused to meet obligations, agreed in 1992 (pdf), to compensate developing countries for the damaging impact of their greenhouse gas emissions.

Even where limited funds are being given, these often come in the form of loans.

For example, alongside a grant of £70m, the UK government is lending £255m through the World Bank for climate change adaptation projects. This includes lending money to the Caribbean island of Grenada, even though it is already in default and unable to pay its huge debts.

"Justice for the Filipino people demands debt cancellation," says Ricardo Reyes of the Freedom from Debt Coalition. "Climate justice demands reparations to enable the Philippines to develop resilience to climate change and compensation for losses and damages."

Where debts are out of control, fail to protect basic human rights, or come from odious loans for damaging or failed projects – all of which is true of the Philippines – they should be cancelled. And as climate change gets worse, the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions have a moral duty to compensate those who are most impacted, and to do so with grants, not loans.


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A mountaineer on the wintry princesses of Frozen

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 11:00 PM PST

Women climbers are not high in number, but Disney's heroine Anna has the right credentials to join them – as long as she ditches the high heels

When I was halfway up Everest, there were moments when I wished I was somewhere warm – just like the characters in this fun Disney cartoon about two princesses, Anna and Elsa, whose kingdom has been thrown into eternal winter. But you have to love winter to be a mountaineer – and cold, mountainous environments are incredibly beautiful. The illustrators have done a nice job of capturing that beauty.

Trekking across the snow in a dress and high heels like Anna isn't exactly practical, though. I'd have fitted her out with a proper pair of boots, but it is good to see a Disney film about a strong female character. I wouldn't say I've had to struggle to be taken seriously as a female mountaineer – I've had a lot of respect – but there certainly aren't many women in mountaineering.

Anna and the other characters have bravery and perseverance, exactly the qualities you need to be a successful mountaineer. I was 21 when I climbed Everest last year: it took more than a year of training and it was painful. But it was worth it. I do motivational speaking about the climb and I'm even thinking about going back to try the north ridge.

In one scene, Anna and her friends are attacked by wolves. That's a real hazard if you're trekking in places like Canada and the US - along with attacks by bears. But there are no animals at high altitude. I must admit I have sometimes been very tempted, like Anna, to stop and build a snowman. Everest isn't really the place to do that though: it's a serious environment. Snowman-building would have felt inappropriate.

Magic is at the heart of Frozen and mountaineering can also be a really magical experience. There's an area on Everest, right after base camp, called the Khumbu icefall, that is utterly magical: it's where the Khumbu glaciers come down through the valley, creating these crazy, beautiful ice sculptures. It's a scary, dangerous place, but it's also very beautiful. I don't think any of the Disney landscapes were based on real places like this. But I do wish the mountains in the film were real – I'd love the chance to climb them!

Frozen is out now


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Immigration anxiety cannot just be ignored | John Harris

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 11:00 PM PST

In between the rightwing hysteria over the 1 January changes and liberal pleas for tolerance, is a public preoccupied with rent, not race

This weekend the president of Bulgaria, in the midst of an increasingly heated debate about the imminent lifting of restrictions on migration from his country to the UK, said: "Politicians should be ready to say the inconvenient truth." They should endure short-term unpopularity, Rosen Plevneliev suggests, "preserve our values" and "keep the history of our proud tolerant nations as they are". Given that his words were aimed at a Conservative party now zooming into pre-election mode under the supervision of Lynton Crosby, they read like subtle satire.

And on the same theme, Nick Clegg asked: "What would happen if tonight every European living in the UK boarded a ship or plane and went home? Are we really that keen to see the back of German lawyers, Dutch accountants, or Finnish engineers?" Full marks for his usual high-mindedness, but the contributions made by such professionals are only a fraction of the issue: the truth is that the British economy would be in a much more parlous state if it lost the low-paid Poles cleaning hotels, the Czechs serving cappuccinos, and the Latvians and Lithuanians working as security guards.

What a mess all this is. Next week, on 1 January, seven years after their countries formally joined the European Union, restrictions will be lifted on the number of Bulgarians and Romanians who can live and work in the UK. Exactly how many will come here is inevitably unclear, and clouded by the hysterical claims made by parts of the rightwing press, and the UK Independence party – one of whose leaflets in this year's Eastleigh byelection stated that "the EU will allow 29 million Bulgarians and Romanians to come to the UK". That number was derived by simply adding together the two countries' populations.

The Tories are clearly panicked. Consequently, as of last week, the Conservative position on EU enlargement (long seen by the Tories as the best bulwark against political union) began to shift. David Cameron is now seemingly pledged to veto the accession of such countries as Serbia and Albania, unless there are new restrictions on the free movement of labour. Conservative high-ups are said to be considering an annual cap of 75,000 migrants from the EU – a move that, as Vince Cable pointed outon Sunday, would probably be "illegal and impossible to implement", and has much more to do with moronic electioneering than serious politics.

Meanwhile, the liberal left is reprising its mantra: migration is good for us, new migrants from the EU pay about a third more in taxes than they cost in public services and benefits, Britain has a long tradition of tolerance and openness, etc. The abiding impression is of the kind of people who write headlines for the Daily Express facing off against people who often seem to speak only in platitudes and dry statistics, which only serves to obscure the issues even more.

Yet something is unavoidably up. According to YouGov, in 2005 Britons supported "the right of people in EU countries to live and work wherever they want" by a ratio of two to one. Today, we oppose free movement by 49% to 38%. One recent poll by ComRes – admittedly commissioned by an anti-EU outfit called Get Britain Out – found that 79% of people opposed the lifting of the restrictions on new arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania. All this cannot solely be traced to the screams of rightwing papers and the rise of Ukip's Nigel Farage, let alone some metro-left fantasy that outside the M25 simple bigotry runs rampant.

The point is, millions of people will always be uneasy about large-scale change. Not because they are racist, or any more prejudiced than anyone else – but because human beings like a measure of certainty and stability. Further, it barely needs pointing out that immigration tends to impact places where certainty and stability are thin on the ground. If you pinball between part-time work and jobseeker's allowance and feel about two pay cheques away from destitution, the idea that your meagre chunk of the rock may be about to shrink yet further will not go down well. Statistics, unfortunately, have precious little to do with this: there may be an argument that, viewed from a macro level, immigration does not drag down wages, but it seems to have an appreciable effect towards the bottom of the labour market – and besides, if you live in a constant state of anxiety, even the suggestion that it might will be enough.

Millions of people understand all this, as a matter of day-to-day experience. In Peterborough, employment agencies are stuffed with young eastern European men being packed off to do temporary work, and locals swear blind their sons and daughters either do not get a look-in or are caught in a grim race to the bottom. In Boston, Lincolnshire, a byword for tensions around immigration, people say that local market gardening businesses seized on newly arrived people who were prepared to live and work in the most abject of circumstances, and thereby cut the town in two.

Throw in former council houses now pulled into the most disreputable end of the buy-to-let market (as has happened in the areas of Sheffield that have attracted newly arrived Roma people), and you have even bigger problems.

And none of these tensions have anything to do with "health tourism", the non-problem of EU migrants claiming benefits, or any of the other issues being played up by the Tories: instead they are reducible to the ideas embedded by the Conservatives in the 80s and 90s, largely sustained during the Blair and Brown years, and now being taken to new extremes by Cameron et al – surely the greatest dishonesty of all.

As an alternative to the politics of deception and displacement activity, we might accept that our membership of the EU brings far more benefits than costs, but understand that in the absence of dependable labour standards, housing and other essentials, it could well fall into disrepute. A half-repentant Labour party may be gingerly moving towards this position; the Tories remain much where they ever were; and the Liberal Democrats, long ignorant of anything to do with the nitty-gritty of the economy, do not seem to have a position one way or the other.

To go back to Plevneliev, politicians should indeed be mindful of their countries' "tolerant" histories, and occasionally state inconvenient truths. But they are also going to have to look at one of the most awkward facts of all: that if the free movement of people has become synonymous with insecurity and anxiety, it should focus attention not on borders policy, but on the basics of our economy.


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Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies' | Nafeez Ahmed

Posted: 22 Dec 2013 10:01 PM PST

Industry expert warns of grim future of 'recession' driven 'resource wars' at University College London lecture

A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

At a lecture on 'Geohazards' earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.

Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves." Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year:

"We need new production equal to a new Saudi Arabia every 3 to 4 years to maintain and grow supply... New discoveries have not matched consumption since 1986. We are drawing down on our reserves, even though reserves are apparently climbing every year. Reserves are growing due to better technology in old fields, raising the amount we can recover – but production is still falling at 4.1% p.a. [per annum]."

Dr. Miller, who prepared annual in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007, refers to this as the "ATM problem" – "more money, but still limited daily withdrawals." As a consequence: "Production of conventional liquid oil has been flat since 2008. Growth in liquid supply since then has been largely of natural gas liquids [NGL]- ethane, propane, butane, pentane - and oil-sand bitumen."

Dr. Miller is co-editor of a special edition of the prestigious journal, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, published this month on the future of oil supply. In an introductory paper co-authored with Dr. Steve R. Sorrel, co-director of the Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex in Brighton, they argue that among oil industry experts "there is a growing consensus that the era of cheap oil has passed and that we are entering a new and very different phase." They endorse the conservative conclusions of an extensive earlier study by the government-funded UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC):

"... a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020... on current evidence the inclusion of tight oil [shale oil] resources appears unlikely to significantly affect this conclusion, partly because the resource base appears relatively modest."

In fact, increasing dependence on shale could worsen decline rates in the long run:

"Greater reliance upon tight oil resources produced using hydraulic fracturing will exacerbate any rising trend in global average decline rates, since these wells have no plateau and decline extremely fast - for example, by 90% or more in the first 5 years."

Tar sands will fare similarly, they conclude, noting that "the Canadian oil sands will deliver only 5 mb per day by 2030, which represents less than 6% of the IEA projection of all-liquids production by that date."

Despite the cautious projection of global peak oil "before 2020", they also point out that:

"Crude oil production grew at approximately 1.5% per year between 1995 and 2005, but then plateaued with more recent increases in liquids supply largely deriving from NGLs, oil sands and tight oil. These trends are expected to continue... Crude oil production is heavily concentrated in a small number of countries and a small number of giant fields, with approximately 100 fields producing one half of global supply, 25 producing one quarter and a single field (Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) producing approximately 7%. Most of these giant fields are relatively old, many are well past their peak of production, most of the rest seem likely to enter decline within the next decade or so and few new giant fields are expected to be found."

"The final peak is going to be decided by the price - how much can we afford to pay?", Dr. Miller told me in an interview about his work. "If we can afford to pay $150 per barrel, we could certainly produce more given a few years of lead time for new developments, but it would break economies again."

Miller argues that for all intents and purposes, peak oil has arrived as conditions are such that despite volatility, prices can never return to pre-2004 levels:

"The oil price has risen almost continuously since 2004 to date, starting at $30. There was a great spike to $150 and then a collapse in 2008/2009, but it has since climbed to $110 and held there. The price rise brought a lot of new exploration and development, but these new fields have not actually increased production by very much, due to the decline of older fields. This is compatible with the idea that we are pretty much at peak today. This recession is what peak feels like."

Although he is dismissive of shale oil and gas' capacity to prevent a peak and subsequent long decline in global oil production, Miller recognises that there is still some leeway that could bring significant, if temporary dividends for US economic growth - though only as "a relatively short-lived phenomenon":

"We're like a cage of lab rats that have eaten all the cornflakes and discovered that you can eat the cardboard packets too. Yes, we can, but... Tight oil may reach 5 or even 6 million b/d in the US, which will hugely help the US economy, along with shale gas. Shale resources, though, are inappropriate for more densely populated countries like the UK, because the industrialisation of the countryside affects far more people (with far less access to alternative natural space), and the economic benefits are spread more thinly across more people. Tight oil production in the US is likely to peak before 2020. There absolutely will not be enough tight oil production to replace the US' current 9 million b/d of imports."

In turn, by prolonging global economic recession, high oil prices may reduce demand. Peak demand in turn may maintain a longer undulating oil production plateau:

"We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills. Production could rise a little for a few years yet, but not sufficiently to bring the price down; alternatively, continuous recession in much of the world may keep demand essentially flat for years at the $110/bbl price we have today. But we can't grow the supply at average past rates of about 1.5% per year at today's prices."

The fundamental dependence of global economic growth on cheap oil supplies suggests that as we continue into the age of expensive oil and gas, without appropriate efforts to mitigate the impacts and transition to a new energy system, the world faces a future of economic and geopolitical turbulence:

"In the US, high oil prices correlate with recessions, although not all recessions correlate with high oil prices. It does not prove causation, but it is highly likely that when the US pays more than 4% of its GDP for oil, or more than 10% of GDP for primary energy, the economy declines as money is sucked into buying fuel instead of other goods and services... A shortage of oil will affect everything in the economy. I expect more famine, more drought, more resource wars and a steady inflation in the energy cost of all commodities."

According to another study in the Royal Society journal special edition by professor David J. Murphy of Northern Illinois University, an expert in the role of energy in economic growth, the energy return on investment (EROI) for global oil and gas production - the amount of energy produced compared to the amount of energy invested to get, deliver and use that energy - is roughly 15 and declining. For the US, EROI of oil and gas production is 11 and declining; and for unconventional oil and biofuels is largely less than 10. The problem is that as EROI decreases, energy prices increase. Thus, Murphy concludes:

"... the minimum oil price needed to increase the oil supply in the near term is at levels consistent with levels that have induced past economic recessions. From these points, I conclude that, as the EROI of the average barrel of oil declines, long-term economic growth will become harder to achieve and come at an increasingly higher financial, energetic and environmental cost."

Current EROI in the US, Miller said, is simply "not enough to support the US infrastructure, even if America was self-sufficient, without raising production even further than current consumption."

In their introduction to their collection of papers in the Royal Society journal, Miller and Sorrell point out that "most authors" in the special edition "accept that conventional oil resources are at an advanced stage of depletion and that liquid fuels will become more expensive and increasingly scarce." The shale revolution can provide only "short-term relief", but is otherwise "unlikely to make a significant difference in the longer term."

They call for a "coordinated response" to this challenge to mitigate the impact, including "far-reaching changes in global transport systems." While "climate-friendly solutions to 'peak oil' are available" they caution, these will be neither "easy" nor "quick", and imply a model of economic development that accepts lower levels of consumption and mobility.

In his interview with me, Richard Miller was particularly critical of the UK government's policies, including abandoning large-scale wind farm projects, the reduction of feed-in tariffs for renewable energy, and support for shale gas. "The government will do anything for the short-term economic bounce," he said, "but the consequence will be that the UK is tied more tightly to an oil-based future, and we will pay dearly for it."

Dr Nafeez Ahmed is executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development and author of A User's Guide to the Crisis of Civilisation: And How to Save It among other books. Follow him on Twitter @nafeezahmed


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